Of course, it will come to that. I live in northern California. People refuse to even remove their lawns, the biggest household water waster of all. People will not voluntarily conserve. Water will eventually have to be metered on a per person basis, failing that water use will continue to rise.

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We took out our lawns during the previous drought cycle and sparsely planted drought resistant plants with drip irrigation. Many folks who did the same turned around and replanted lawn after one wet year.

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California has 12 desalination plants. The thirteenth is proposed to be built in Huntington beach has been the subject of a fierce debate for over a decade. At this pace California will indeed be rationing water on a per person basis.

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/11/california-desalination-plant-water-drought